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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."