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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.